Private 5G - Hype Versus Reality (Regarding A Mess Of Market Forecasts)
RCRWirelessNews, Thursday, April 11th, 2024
The private 5G market is spooked, apparently. Figures from Analysys Mason predict bountiful growth over the next five years (4,000 to 60,000 total deployments; $1 billion to $9 in annual spend), but also say that the market will have failed by the end of the period because it has 'not reached its potential'.
But is that potential, really? Or is it hype? Or is it just a narrow view of the market? Because every calculation and forecast out there - which disagree about the details but agree about the message ('growth') - surely takes its cue from a market review commissioned by Nokia five years ago which said the addressable market for private 5G might stretch to 14 million industrial venues.
Let's pause on that 14-million figure for a moment. It was mapped-out by Harvard University to count-out Nokia's industrial targets - which have become the industry's targets. Ten million factories, three million warehouses, 50,000 mines, or something-like; plus everywhere else in Industry 4.0 (see graphic below) - it captures the epic sweep of the industrial sector, and the grand promise of industrial revolution.