The 2026 Global Intelligence Crisis
CITADEL Securities, Thursday, February 26th, 2026
The year is 2026. The unemployment rate just printed 4.28%, AI capex is 2% of GDP (650bn), AI adjacent commodities are up 65% since Jan-23 and approximately 2,800 data centers are planned for construction in the US. In spite of the current displacement narrative - job postings for software engineers are rising rapidly, up 11% YoY.
Despite the macroeconomic community struggling to forecast 2-month-forward payroll growth with any reliable accuracy, the forward path of labor destruction can apparently be inferred with significant certainty from a hypothetical scenario posted on Substack: The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis.
We wrote last week that we see the near-term dynamics around the AI capex story as inflationary, but given markets are focused on the forward narrative, we outline a more constructive take on the end state below. Before that, however, it's worth reflecting that the imminent disintermediation narrative rests on the speed of diffusion.