LABScon25 Replay
SentinelOne, Thursday, May 14th, 2026
Researchers explore whether public indicators of cyber breaches can predict stock market reactions before disclosure.
At LABScon25, Mick Baccio and Scott Roberts examined whether public signals of cyber breaches-such as EDGAR filings, executive posts, and social media-can be used to anticipate stock price movements and inform trading strategies.
They tested a "15/30" hypothesis using AI-assisted data collection and Hidden Markov Models to analyze timing patterns across material cyber breaches at U.S. companies. Through real-world case studies including ransomware attacks on casinos, they explored how market outcomes vary based on response strategy and disclosure dynamics.
The analysis yielded mixed results, leading the speakers to propose "quantitized nihilism," questioning fundamental assumptions about how markets value cyber failures and breach disclosure.